The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (2024)

Leaders 2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy Generative AI holds much promise for businesses The green transition will transform the global economic order The scourge of “stealthflation” The year ahead Drawing on 2024 Calendar 2024 Superforecasters What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024 Britain Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change? Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality The outlook for the British economy is better than expected Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III? Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024 Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances Europe The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together France will unify for sport but not for politics Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again Europe’s economies will diverge in new ways Dara Massicot on dealing with trauma in Ukraine United States An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election Three economic risks facing America in 2024 With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan? Can America regulate big tech at all? Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South A cricket World Cup comes to America Extreme heat will bake America’s cities Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice on the new cold war The Americas Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024 Mexico will elect its first female president The future is bright for Latin American startups Latin America could lead the way on green power Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister Asia Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope India has big plans to export its e-government technology China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president The Central Asian republics are cultivating new alliances The energy transition could create unexpected linkages in Asia Indonesia will elect a new president in February S. Jaishankar on India’s growing global role China China’s leaders will seek to exploit global divisions in 2024 China’s appeal to poor countries is changing Xi Jinping will consolidate his power in the coming year China faces a trade-off between confidence and credibility Life will get even harder for foreign firms in China The Chinese Communist Party is struggling to inspire the young Middle East & Africa A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East The Middle East faces a series of sham elections The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life The Middle East’s music business has huge potential In Iran, 2024 is all about the succession African countries will scrimp on investment in the coming year It’s going to get grimmer in the Sahel South Africa faces a defining election There is a new scramble for Africa International How to rig an election Global average temperatures may pass a threshold in 2024 Demand for “green” metals will redraw the global mining map The BRICS are expanding Deep-sea miners are ready to get down to work Nuclear testing could start a new arms race A global agency to oversee AI is a tall order How we did with last year’s predictions Industries Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries Trendlines Metrics to keep an eye on in 2024, from solar cells to superhero movies Business Decarbonisation of industrial activities is beginning Europe needs to build energy islands Generative AI will go mainstream in 2024 The fight to control the headset market will intensify Semiconductors will remain central to America’s tech rivalry with China EVs are poised to make China the world’s biggest car exporter The fight over remote working will heat up in 2024 Travellers face another year of disruption in 2024 Sluggish investment is holding India back Self-driving cars are slowly moving forward Can hi-tech supply chains binding China and America be untangled? Timnit Gebru says harmful AI systems need to be stopped Finance & economics Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024 A global minimum tax on firms is finally taking shape The world’s most indebted countries face another year in limbo Investors are daring to hope for some stability in the stockmarket An onslaught of protectionism will change global trade The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies will slow in 2024 Three commodities could take off in 2024 Science & technology AI models will become smaller and faster Expect a bumper year for weight-loss drugs New medical treatments will use genetic scissors, and other clever tricks Astronauts are returning to the moon…well, sort of Get ready for the Great North American eclipse The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies Jennifer Holmgren on the circular carbon economy Culture AI will transform every aspect of Hollywood storytelling Museums will multiply in 2024 What will be the bestsellers in the coming year? A spate of new musicals will cheer the spirits in 2024 A new era for west African architecture Female rock stars are becoming increasingly popular in China Obituary Reflections on paperlessness, in the spirit of Ogden Nash